Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 125.267709 144.686885 166.891560 194.327232 227.544382 266.751827 316.964417
2025-11-30 104.543316 130.070786 162.127365 205.981033 265.429383 344.732118 461.175301
2025-12-07 88.432507 116.006281 153.062107 207.768296 288.722674 407.920428 604.398948
2025-12-14 78.133844 106.933499 147.825438 212.148837 314.759405 479.648288 782.039209
2025-12-21 69.326169 98.158637 140.963655 211.928050 332.581625 541.847598 964.578498
2025-12-28 65.460718 95.831955 142.960737 225.357991 374.999696 656.502549 1289.186693
2026-01-04 61.587554 92.812179 143.179560 235.515432 413.602486 775.117408 1676.580420
2026-01-11 57.911219 89.537128 142.345625 243.410040 449.485348 899.166960 2141.296800
2026-01-18 54.054368 85.438539 139.438301 246.769547 476.819186 1013.263672 2646.624899
2026-01-25 50.232370 80.932885 135.158410 246.611016 496.462622 1115.758410 3184.461779
2026-02-01 46.149653 75.527732 128.546496 240.595194 501.469098 1182.918410 3654.137488
2026-02-08 42.630265 70.779188 122.600207 234.999786 506.216539 1251.356688 4182.529266
2026-02-15 39.374952 66.315278 116.905383 229.543931 511.430569 1327.538709 4829.618360
2026-02-22 38.642036 66.466156 120.276110 244.879806 574.531269 1610.184154 6728.440335
2026-03-01 36.681593 64.078752 118.229009 247.362042 603.770286 1797.272045 8417.000422
2026-03-08 35.177317 62.426172 117.495220 252.870141 643.470654 2044.170142 10884.579080
2026-03-15 33.327276 59.912789 114.637165 252.615350 665.957102 2238.561569 13390.668174
2026-03-22 32.939041 60.306716 118.130507 269.325422 747.771424 2736.664440 19685.699148
2026-03-29 32.234099 59.973711 119.954853 281.996190 821.091952 3256.908819 28213.060043
2026-04-05 31.365686 59.211678 120.699754 291.863546 888.535417 3808.912615 39928.774297
2026-04-12 30.201680 57.710822 119.535642 296.067691 936.713180 4301.904542 53983.208022
2026-04-19 28.871371 55.737199 117.025389 295.869269 967.909608 4726.029932 70231.609231
2026-04-26 27.245470 52.988282 112.352557 288.343626 966.822692 4943.125738 83930.873470